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geopolitical

On May 26, India hosted a formal meeting of the foreign ministers of the Quad — comprising the United States, Australia, India, and Japan. Since its initial creation in 2007 and revival in 2017, foreign policy analysts have debated the usefulness of the organization, which was designed as a group of democratic states that could work together to counter growing Chinese power and influence. Under the second Trump administration, some analysts have expressed growing pessimism about the group’s effectiveness, given the president’s apparent lack of interest in attending a meeting with heads of state. Nonetheless, U.S. Secretary of State Marco The post Does the Quad Still Matter? appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical

In 2023, the NATO Baltic Defense College in Tartu, Estonia devoted its entire annual conference to the Interwar Period (1919 to 1939), a theme repeated at subsequent conferences sponsored by national militaries and academic societies throughout the United States and Europe. Western scholars and foreign policy analysts, provoked by Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, seem persuaded that we are living at the close of another interwar era — one in which an egotistical European power shatters a decades-long continental truce, established and upheld by an international rules-based order, by invading a smaller neighbor ostensibly to defend threatened national minorities. A The post The Rain in Spain Falls Harder on Ukraine: Rethinking the Spanish Civil War Analogy appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical

In 2024, Michael Swaine wrote, “How to Stop the United States and China from Sliding into War,” where he identified areas that could increase the possibility of an armed conflict between the United States and China. Two years later, after recent talks between President Trump and President Xi, we asked Michael to revisit his arguments.Image: U.S. Department of StateIn your 2024 article, you flagged a rising possibility of major armed conflict between China and the United States. That was before American forces became militarily involved in Iran. Does that involvement change your calculus? And critically — does it deter Beijing, The post Will China and the United States Pursue Strategic Stability? appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical

When President Donald Trump repeatedly pressed regional leaders on Abraham Accords expansion late last month — framing Arab-Israeli normalization as a debt owed and a condition for a settlement to end the Iran war — he apparently commented there had been silence on the other end of the line.Arab and Muslim states are not silent because they lack a position on normalization. Indeed, collectively they have already articulated one through the Arab Peace Initiative ­— the 2002 proposal that offered normalized relations between Israel and over 50 countries. In exchange, it required Israel to fully withdraw from occupied territories, agree The post Wrong Audience, Wrong Ask: Why Trump’s Abraham Accords Gambit Falls on Deaf Ears appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical

The Battle of Midway has assumed a place in American naval lore that has put it on par with other great battles in world naval history. What Salamis was for the Greeks, Trafalgar for the British Royal Navy, and Tsushima for the Japanese, the clash northwest of Midway Island on June 4, 1942, represents for the U.S. Navy. It was a moment of heroism, professional skill, and victory, which came to define how the Navy viewed itself for the rest of the 20th century and beyond.Unlike those other great battles, however, Midway was a decidedly modern naval operation. It involved The post Revisiting The Importance of the Battle of Midway appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical

China’s plan to become a world leader in AI by 2030 is a fixture of practically every Congressional briefing and expert commentary on Beijing’s AI ambitions. The plan’s logic — introduced in 2017 — was simple and alarming: Beijing would direct capital, mobilize its firms, recruit talent, and execute with the strategic patience of a state-led innovation ecosystem. Nearly a decade later, that frame has only hardened. Beijing’s recently issued 15th Five-Year Plan directs Party organs to take “extraordinary measures” to strengthen technological self-reliance and launch a new “AI+” initiative to integrate AI across the nation’s strategic sectors. Beijing has The post Forged in a Knife Fight: China’s Brutal Domestic AI Competition appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical

When is the risk of war the highest? And what should the United States be doing about it? One of the most important but underappreciated questions in international politics is how states think about the future balance of power. Countries that believe their position is improving often choose patience. Those who fear their position is deteriorating may feel pressure to act before their advantages disappear. In this episode, Ryan is joined by Dean Cheng, Mira Rapp-Hooper, and Amanda Hsiao to explore how Chinese leaders may be thinking about time, power, and Taiwan. This episode is sponsored by Kibu, which ensures you always know The post Is Time on China’s Side? Beijing’s Taiwan Calculus and the Balance of Power appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical

In August 2024, scholars at a Xiamen-based think tank published a paper urging Beijing to immediately establish a shadow Taiwan government on the Chinese mainland in preparation for a full takeover of the island. “It is imperative to prepare a plan for the comprehensive takeover of Taiwan after unification,” they said. The scholars were writing at a fraught moment for Beijing.Only months earlier, the anti-China Democratic Progressive Party had taken office after a third consecutive presidential election win. Unusually for a Chinese publication on such a sensitive topic, the paper made several frank admissions: that opposition to unification within Taiwan The post After the Invasion: China Considers the Problem of Ruling Taiwan appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical

Adversaries do not need to breach the Pentagon’s systems: They only need to harvest the logic of the publicly released frontier AI models that underpin them. This is a defining risk as the Department of Defense pivots to an “AI-first” warfighting machine. In this new context, military predominance is a derivative of AI model supremacy. From Project Maven’s intelligence fusion to the high-velocity sensor-to-shooter loops of Anduril’s Lattice, the Defense Department’s most advanced systems are tethered to the frontier models forged by tech heavyweights like Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI. As long as these firms hold the high ground in the The post The Pentagon’s AI Edge Is Being Distilled Away appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical

At the Port of Beirut, the new scanners did exactly what they were built to do. They saw the lithium batteries. They saw the drone propellers. They saw the fiber optic cable. They matched the scans against the paperwork, found no obvious deception, and cleared the cargo.That was the problem.The threat was not hidden in any single container. It was spread across many of them, arriving over weeks, through different vessels, different companies, and different bills of lading. The AI could identify what each shipment contained, but couldn’t figure out what those shipments, taken together, might be building toward.As a The post What Beirut’s Port Scanners Miss About Militant Supply Chains appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical

Congress rarely moves fast, but Reps. Rob Wittman and Pat Ryan are trying to change that. The two lawmakers founded the bipartisan House Defense Modernization Caucus in 2024 and have driven reforms through two consecutive defense authorization acts, targeting acquisitions and other bottlenecks. Jonathan sits down with both congressmen to discuss their initiatives, how a caucus without markup power actually moves legislation, and whether bipartisan cooperation on defense can last.Image: Sgt. 1st Class Rakeem Carter via DVIDS. The post The Lawmakers Fighting to Modernize the Pentagon appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical

Welcome to The Ukraine Compass, a weekly digest of Ukrainian commentary and analysis from across the political spectrum only for War on the Rocks members. Each Monday, we bring you a curated selection of articles from Ukrainian media offering insight into how Ukrainians themselves debate the issues shaping their country.American coverage often narrows the view to the battlefield — these pieces widen it, revealing the texture of daily life, politics, and public argument in a nation at war. The perspectives gathered here are varied, candid, and often surprising, together forming a more complete picture of Ukraine as it really is.Frontline and StrategyОбозреватель — The post Is Skepticism Ukraine’s Foreign Policy Playbook? appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical · geopolitical

Rarely a week passes without a new story about Russia’s shadow fleet. Tankers catch fire in the Mediterranean, are added to sanctions lists, or are boarded while passing through European waters. But the bigger story is not the vessels that are caught, but those that aren’t — ships moving between registries, ports, shell companies, and service providers that obscure their ties to Russia while keeping a sanctioned state afloat. The vessels that do get sanctioned are the visible tip of a larger scheme that North Korea spent years running, and Russia has refined at scale.Shadow fleets are typically studied in The post From Pyongyang to Primorsk: When Sanctions Evasion Becomes System Design appeared first on War on the Rocks .

military · geopolitical

The Lebanese state’s lack of effective sovereignty is a crucial problem in efforts to negotiate with Israel and disarm Hizballah. In response to intensified fighting between Israel and Hizballah, the United States began hosting talks between Israel and the Lebanese government in April. However, fighting has continued, and Hizballah recently rejected a proposed ceasefire deal.In 2025, in a historic move, the Lebanese government made plans for the Lebanese Armed Forces to disarm Hizballah. However, the military made slow progress, partly due to fears that more aggressive moves might splinter the Lebanese forces. Meanwhile, Israeli attacks have killed dozens of members The post How Can Lebanon’s Partners Help Strengthen the Lebanese Armed Forces? appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical · geopolitical

It is in long periods of peace that victories and defeats are prepared. Peace is the period for men of government, just as war is for men of action. Without the calm preparation carried out by the former, the courage and energy of the latter are of no use. — Captain First Class Ramón Auñón y Villalón, 1885.The Spanish-American War is widely remembered as a moment of triumph for the United States and a disaster for Spain. The war began in 1898 after Spain. The war began in 1898 after Spain’s brutal effort to suppress Cuba’s independence revolt, American outrage The post Cascading Failure: The Spanish Navy’s Reserve Squadron and the Tragedy of Unpreparedness appeared first on War on the Rocks .

military · geopolitical

Winter Storm Uri ripped through Texas in January 2021. The frigid temperatures froze pipes, which then burst and caused flooding in aging barracks at Fort Hood, many of which were overdue for renovations and had vulnerable mechanical and utility systems. The burst pipes, damaged sprinkler systems, and frozen heating, ventilation, and air conditioning coils affected over 30 barracks, forcing soldiers to relocate and causing nearly $50 million in damage.According to the Department of Defense’s reporting, the United States owns and operates more than 700,000 facilities across nearly 5,000 sites at home and abroad. Much of this infrastructure is aging. Nearly The post Dusting a Dirt Road: How The United States Can Break the Cycle of Failing Military Infrastructure appeared first on War on the Rocks .

military · geopolitical

Washington is littered with the corpses of grand plans to restore the Merchant Marine. The Trump administration’s Maritime Action Plan is the latest attempt, and to its credit, the most comprehensive since World War II.The plan is the government’s blueprint to resurrect America’s commercial shipping and domestic shipbuilding industry. The goal is straightforward: build enough merchant ships and train enough civilian mariners to sustain the military through war, while cutting reliance on foreign supply chains in peace. With a $1.5 billion Maritime Security Trust Fund, Maritime Prosperity Zones, and fees on foreign-built vessels, it treats over a half-century of decline The post The Maritime Action Plan Needs a Yardstick: Enter the Mahan Ratio appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical · geopolitical

The next war over Taiwan may be deterred not by aircraft carriers or nuclear arsenals, but by a Dutch lithography machine. ASML, headquartered in Veldhoven, the Netherlands, is the sole manufacturer of the extreme ultraviolet lithography systems required to produce the world’s most advanced semiconductors. Without its machines, the most sophisticated foundries on earth — including those of the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) — cannot operate. This fact should be at the center of how the United States thinks about deterrence in the Indo-Pacific. Currently, it is not.The conventional wisdom holds that Taiwan’s semiconductor industry acts as a “silicon The post The Chain of Peace: Do Supply Chain Chokepoints Deter War? appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical · geopolitical

A few months ago, I attended a panel discussion for a wargame simulating rapid industrial mobilization for armed conflict. Conducted by a leading university, with teams composed of former senior defense officials, the game probed how government and industry collaboration would play out given minimal coordination before the onset of a crisis. On the panel, the defense leaders confessed how infrequently they engaged with industry in real life to plan for a national emergency. This declared lack of public-private planning for large-scale conflict matches what I’ve experienced as a defense planner and wargame developer: Outside of rhetorical claims at annual The post Wargaming for Improved Acquisition: What Does It Take? appeared first on War on the Rocks .

military · geopolitical

In 2022, Scott Sweetow wrote, “Of Roadside Bombs and Drones: Putin’s Looming Insurgency Problem,” where he argued Ukraine’s fight against Russia would rely on a combination of conventional and asymmetrical insurgent tactics. Four years of combat later, we asked Scott to revisit his arguments.Image: National Information Warfare Center PacificIn your 2022 article, you argued that Ukraine’s tech-driven resistance could rapidly evolve into an insurgency-style force. Four years in, how have those assessments held up? Could one argue that Ukraine today operates more like an insurgency in some respects than a conventional state military? Classic insurgencies pit asymmetric or guerrilla forces against organized, The post The Evolution of Ukraine’s Asymmetrical Combat Tactics appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical · geopolitical

Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***Iran Hostilities have increased notably in the last few days, effectively ending the U.S.-Iranian truce that had somewhat held since April. At the start of June, fighting further intensified between Israel and Hizballah in Lebanon, complicating U.S.-Iranian negotiations, as Iran has insisted on linking U.S.-Iranian talks with an end to Israeli actions against Hizballah. The fighting in Lebanon led to Israel and Iran trading direct strikes on June 7. Then, on June 8, Iran reportedly The post Strike, Counterstrike, Repeat appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical · geopolitical

Missiles, drones, and maritime disruptions do not stop at national borders. Gulf defense architecture still too often waits for national permission to act. The Gulf Cooperation Council has spent decades building defense institutions, diplomatic forums, and a language of indivisible Gulf security. Recent crises in the Red Sea, the Strait of Hormuz, and the airspace above the Gulf have exposed a harder test: whether those institutions can move at crisis speed when a missile salvo, drone attack, or maritime disruption gives the region minutes or hours, not days, to respond.The Gulf has no shortage of capability. The region has advanced The post The Gulf Arab States Need a Shield Built for Limited Trust appeared first on War on the Rocks .

military · geopolitical

In late May 2026, South Korean Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back unveiled a roadmap to achieving one of Seoul’s top military acquisition goals: nuclear-powered submarines. This roadmap is heading in the wrong direction.During last month’s inaugural meeting of the Future Defense Strategy Committee, South Korea published its Basic Plan for the Development of Nuclear-Powered Submarines. Chaired by President Lee Jae Myung, the committee was formed to help South Korea build robust, self-reliant defense capabilities. During the event, Lee’s opening remarks underscored the symbolic significance of the nuclear submarine capability and stressed the program’s role in “strengthening the Republic of Korea’s defense The post South Korea Could Build Nuclear Submarines, But It Shouldn’t appeared first on War on the Rocks .

economic · economic

America’s defense industrial base cannot build the Navy out of the threat it faces. Decades of industry consolidation, persistent resource shortages, and inconsistent demand signals have delayed the production of critical vessels and munitions. With production bottlenecks stacking up, the Navy may have no choice but to let its allies do some of the building.Both the National Defense Strategy and Navy Warfighting Instructions highlight how mobilizing allies can field more forces to the mutual benefit of the United States and its strategic partners. Likewise, the latest U.S. Navy Shipbuilding Plan stresses the importance of allied investment and production.The Trump administration The post How Japan Could Co-Produce the Navy’s Future Fleet appeared first on War on the Rocks .

social demographic · culture

Editor’s note: This is part of a running series of essays by Iskander Rehman, entitled “Applied History,” which seeks, through the study of the history of strategy and military operations, to better illuminate contemporary defense challenges.The fall of Singapore on February 15 stupefied the Prime Minister. How came 100,000 men … to hold up their hands to inferior numbers of Japanese? Though his mind had been gradually prepared for its fall, the surrender of the fortress stunned him. He felt it was a disgrace. It left a scar on his mind. One evening, months later, when he was sitting in The post The Fall of Fortress Singapore: Three Lessons from the Collapse of Britain’s Great Asian Bastion appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical · geopolitical

Editor’s Note: This is a new occasional series brought to you by War on the Rocks. If you would like to pitch your own version, please refer to the contact information and guidance on our submissions page.Every war, it seems, produces its famous novel, a book that captures not merely the tactics and the terrain but the moral weather of its time. The American Civil War gave us The Red Badge of Courage. World War I gave us All Quiet on the Western Front. World War II offered more competitors, as if the scale of the catastrophe demanded more witnesses; The post Three Short Tales on War Brad Carson Wants You to Read appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical · geopolitical

In early March, French President Emmanuel Macron stood at a windswept submarine base on the Breton coast and quietly buried four decades of French nuclear orthodoxy. The arsenal would grow. The numbers would be hidden. And for the first time, nuclear weapons that France built to defend Paris might one day be deployed to protect Berlin.Three simultaneous shifts — an increase of nuclear warheads; an end to transparency over the size of the force de frappe; and the launch of “advanced deterrence,” a framework offering European partners strategic dialogues, invitations to French nuclear exercises, and the potential forward basing of The post Macron’s Nuclear Gamble: Building a European Deterrent Faster Than French Politics Can Tear Down appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical · geopolitical

War is a brutal driver of medical innovation. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has forced clinicians and commanders alike to confront a hard truth: Survival depends not only on tactics and technology, but on the ability to deliver advanced care under fire, evacuate and resuscitate the wounded, and preserve fighting strength despite repeated attacks on healthcare systems.Ukraine’s experience has reshaped combat medicine through necessity, resilience, and improvisation. The central question is no longer whether NATO can observe these lessons, but whether it can build a system bold enough to capture, test, scale, and field them at wartime speed. The NATO The post Good Medicine Is Combat Power: Clinical Innovation and the Lessons of the Russo-Ukrainian War appeared first on War on the Rocks .

economic · economic

A mentor of mine, a superb scholar, once told me that good defense analysis starts with a trade-off. The classic example is combined arms doctrine, which is the foundation of modern warfare. Infantry, armor, artillery, and aviation work together to offset each other’s weaknesses. Each brings a combination of mobility, firepower, or protection, though none individually has all three. Infantry has a lot of mobility, but little protection. Tanks have mobility and a lot of protection, but limited magazines. Artillery in the rear has nearly limitless firepower, but no protection. Aviation brings speed, reach, and firepower, but little staying power, The post Cogs of War Turns One appeared first on War on the Rocks .

geopolitical · geopolitical

In 2024, Emilian Kavalski and Claris Diaz argued in “Beyond TikTok – The National Security Risks of Chinese Agricultural Drones” that the national debate over foreign social media platforms risked becoming too narrow, potentially causing Washington to overlook other foreign technologies embedded in critical systems. Two years later, we asked them to revisit their arguments.Image: MB-one via Wikimedia CommonsIn your 2024 article, you argued that TikTok’s data collection risks were overhyped and that fixating on them distracted the United States from more serious Chinese technology threats, like agricultural drones. Two years and several TikTok ban cycles later, has your view The post China’s Farm Drones: A Trojan Horse Washington Overlooks appeared first on War on the Rocks .