CASCADE RISK INTELLIGENCE

SEE THE RISK YOUR PORTFOLIO DOESN'T SHOW YOU.

Axelrod's Oracle continuously maps geopolitical, macroeconomic and supply-chain events into second- and third-order exposures across portfolios and risk perimeters.

Evidence-backed analysis · Continuous monitoring · Explainable event chains

The hidden risk

Markets do not move only through direct exposure.

Your portfolio shows direct exposure. It does not show every path by which an external event can reach it.

  1. 1Event
  2. 2Second order
  3. 3Third order
  4. 4Portfolio impact

Example chain

How an external event can travel.

Illustrative mechanism — not a live customer result.

  1. 1Geopolitical event
  2. 2Shipping
  3. 3Insurance
  4. 4Energy
  5. 5Inflation
  6. 6Rates
  7. 7Equities

Risk Audit

See the risk perimeter around your holdings.

Upload holdings, enter tickers, or use a labelled sample portfolio.

How Oracle works

Detect

See what happened.

Connect

See how it is linked.

Understand

See why it matters to a perimeter.

Monitor

See what changed.

Act

Decide what to watch next.

Live Oracle

Current analyzed signals. Empty means no public matches in this window — not a zero score.

Economic · Economic

📉

Diesel Prices Keep Pressure on Fed and Markets

S7

The Federal Reserve unanimously raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point as policymakers confront inflation that remains above target and uncertainty tied to geopolitical developments. Merrill and Bank of America Head of CIO Market Strategy Joe Quinlan tells Bloomberg This Weekend hosts David Gura and Christina Ruffini that elevated diesel prices are a particular concern for businesses and could keep pressure on the Fed to raise rates further. (Source: Bloomberg)

Economic · Economic

📉

EU presses Washington to reverse visa ban on Palestinian UN delegation

S7

EU presses Washington to reverse visa ban on Palestinian UN delegation Submitted by MEE and agencies on Sat, 09/19/2026 - 11:48 Diplomatic rift deepens as the US extends its visa ban on PA officials, drawing sharp criticism from the EU and UN leadership over glaring double standards Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas speaks during a meeting with Palestinian leaders at the Muqata, the Palestinian Authority headquarters, in the West Bank city of Ramallah, on 20 February 2019 (AFP) Off The European Union has urged the United States to reconsider its refusal to grant visas to Palestinian Authority (PA) officials aiming to attend the UN General Assembly (UNGA) in New York, marking the second consecutive year Washington has blocked the delegation's travel. The EU's diplomatic service expressed regret over the ongoing ban, pointing to the US's legal responsibilities as the host nation of the United Nations. "In light of its existing headquarters agreements with the UN and its obligations as host state, we urge the United States for this decision to be reconsidered," said EU spokesman Anouar El Anouni on Saturday. The diplomatic friction follows a recent UNGA vote permitting Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to address the upcoming 81st session via a prerecorded statement. Earlier, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres echoed the EU's sentiments, stating he was deeply concerned about how the visa denials impact "the ability of the State of Palestine to participate fully in the work of the United Nations". The US State Department confirmed on Wednesday that it is extending visa sanctions against members of both the PA and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). Washington justified the move by accusing the Palestinian leadership of failing to implement reforms and engaging in activities that "undermine the prospects for peace". Specifically, the US condemned the PA for bypassing direct negotiations with Israel to pursue international recognition of Palestinian statehood and for taking its disputes to international courts. The State Department also cited Ramallah's financial stipends to the families of Palestinians imprisoned by Israel. The travel restrictions highlight a stark diplomatic contrast: no equivalent US travel bans have been imposed on Israeli officials, despite the International Criminal Court pursuing an arrest warrant against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for alleged war crimes in the Gaza Strip. Abbas to address Gaza and settlements Despite the travel ban, Abbas's video address next week is expected to strongly push for the international recognition of a Palestinian state, aiming to build on the momentum generated by recent formal recognitions from the UK, France, Canada and other western states over the past year. The Palestinian president is expected to spotlight the devastating humanitarian crisis in Gaza, alongside the surge of illegal Israeli settlement expansion and escalating settler pogroms across the occupied West Bank. US bans Palestinian president from speaking at the UN Read More » The Palestinian Ministry of Foreign Affairs welcomed the UN resolution allowing Abbas's virtual address, framing it as a successful pushback against attempts to erase Palestine's presence at the UNGA's annual session. Meanwhile, the US State Department on Thursday indicated that it had approved visas for a small number of Iranian officials to attend the UNGA. State Department spokesperson Tommy Pigott had only shared a cryptic post on X suggesting some Iranian diplomats may be coming to New York. "While ordinary Iranians endure brutal repression, water and electricity shortages, and soaring inflation, the regime's officials want to go on shopping sprees in New York. Not on our watch," he said. "We will not let the Iranian regime's elites exploit UNGA for a luxury retail splurge paid for by the Iranian people's suffering, all while the regime funnels Iran's wealth to support its terrorist proxies," he added. "The US will continue to ban Iranian UN Mission officials, visiting officials, and their dependents from buying wholesale club memberships or luxury goods here. " The visas issued will limit the scope of the delegation's movements in Manhattan, and the number of visiting officials will be smaller than last year, the New York Times reported. The delegation is expected to include Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Araghchi has been the chief negotiator with the Americans, alongside Iran's parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, as the US-Israeli war on Iran enters its seventh month. Diplomacy News Post Date Override 0 Update Date Mon, 05/04/2020 - 21:19 Update Date Override 0

Economic · Economic

📉

China is now Rwanda’s biggest export market – now comes the hard part

S7

In the first quarter of 2026, China became the leading destination for Rwandan exports, accounting for 26% of the total, compared with less than 5% just one year earlier. A spectacular shift, driven by the removal of Chinese tariffs on almost all Rwandan products. But on the ground, access to this market of 1.4 billion consumers depends less on tariffs than on meeting sanitary standards. Report by Aurore Bayoud.

Military · Geopolitical

⚔️

US Greenland Deal Shifts Focus to Investment

S8

A new security agreement between the US, Denmark and Greenland would expand the American military role while preserving Greenlandic sovereignty, shifting attention toward potential US investment in mining, infrastructure and tourism. Former US diplomat Lewis Lukens tells David Gura and Christina Ruffini on Bloomberg This Weekend that Greenland welcomes investment but faces formidable obstacles including limited transportation infrastructure, a small workforce and the high cost of developing projects in the Arctic. (Source: Bloomberg)

What Oracle got right — and wrong

These reconstructions are not success trophies. They publish lag and misses.

C1 · 14 months lag

Red Sea shipping · third-order supply chain

T₀ missed; Oracle first captured rerouting narrative ~14 months late. Dashboard severity 6 without order tag.

C2 · 12 months lag

Sanctions / tech decoupling cascade

EU/US tech sanctions T₀ absent in DB; Jun 2025 geopolitical cluster only. RegTech thesis zone, not live feature.

C3 · 10 months lag

USDRUB / CBR key rate macro cascade

CBR 26 Jul 2024 hike missed; Jun 2025 CBR ops at severity 5 — below dashboard threshold. Ticker live, event layer quiet.

Read the limitations

Validation lives here — not in the hero.

ROC-AUC, Brier and BSS are experimental benchmarks with period and version. They are not a commercial guarantee.

Open validation

Who it's for

How to start

Free / Risk Audit

Portfolio scan and a limited perimeter — not a full desk.

Run Risk Audit

14-day Pilot

During the pilot Oracle continuously monitors the selected risk perimeter and surfaces relevant cascade chains.

Start 14-day pilot

Professional

Continuous monitoring. Analyst and Pro are two levels of one paid contour.

See Analyst and Pro

Enterprise

Multiple portfolios, API, onboarding and invoice — after qualification.

Talk to the team

Data handling

Authentication, tenant isolation and deletion exist in the live stack. We do not claim certifications we do not hold.

Security

FAQ

Is this a trading system?
No. Oracle does not execute trades.
Is this investment advice?
No. It is risk intelligence and research.
Can I test before paying?
Yes. Run a Risk Audit and a 14-day pilot.
I do not want to upload a portfolio.
Use the labelled sample portfolio or enter a few tickers.
Why should I trust this?
Live signals, published methodology, and validation with limitations.
Does this replace Bloomberg?
No. It is an additional cascade/exposure layer.

See the chain. Then monitor it.