Cases
Verified retro — lags, not trophy ROI
These three rows are canon. T₀ is when the world moved. first Oracle hit is when the desk actually logged it. We publish the gap. We do not invent dollars a fund “saved”.
C1 · Order lag · 14 months lag
Red Sea shipping · third-order supply chain
T₀ missed; Oracle first captured rerouting narrative ~14 months late. Dashboard severity 6 without order tag.
- T₀
- 2023-11-19
- First hit
- 2025-01-27
C2 · Order lag · 12 months lag
Sanctions / tech decoupling cascade
EU/US tech sanctions T₀ absent in DB; Jun 2025 geopolitical cluster only. RegTech thesis zone, not live feature.
- T₀
- 2024-06-12
- First hit
- 2025-06-04
C3 · Below severity bar · 10 months lag
USDRUB / CBR key rate macro cascade
CBR 26 Jul 2024 hike missed; Jun 2025 CBR ops at severity 5 — below dashboard threshold. Ticker live, event layer quiet.
- T₀
- 2024-07-26
- First hit
- 2025-06-04