Methodology
Event → graph → scenario → score
The method is five steps. The long form, including §4 on how to read Brier versus Model A, is the white paper (HTML on-site, PDF behind a form).
1. Monitor
Sources are scanned continuously. Material events (S1–S9) start a cascade pass.
2. Graph
Shortest paths from the trigger to sectors, names, and jurisdictions through two or three hops.
3–4. Scenario + review
Self-hosted Gemma drafts A/B/C with probabilities, triggers, indicators, horizon. Higher-severity items get human review before publish.
5. Calibrate
When the window closes, we score probabilities. Live Brier / ROC-AUC sit on /statistika. Do not treat a single week as a product claim.