S6/10Geopolitical

US strikes Bandar Khomeini, destroying a bridge — Fars

According to its information, road services are working on organizing a detour route

16 Jul 2026, 20:46 UTCSource: TASS EnglishOriginal source
⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация35% model probability

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Horizon: 7–30 days