Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% The escalation chain begins with rising inflation expectations in India due to sustained economic growth. This triggers increased consumer demand and potentially leads to wage pressures, further fueling inflationary cycles. This could result in the Reserve Bank of India raising interest rates aggressively to curb inflation. The impact on the Indian Rupee's value against major currencies may weaken, leading to a potential increase in import costs for businesses. * India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) continues to rise above the target rate. * RBI raises interest rates by more than expected. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The status quo scenario sees India's inflation remaining within the government's target range, but at a moderate pace. The Reserve Bank of (29% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% The escalation chain begins with rising inflation expectations in India due to sustained economic growth. This triggers increased consumer demand and potentially leads to wage pressures, further fueling inflationary cycles. This could result in the Reserve Bank of India raising interest rates aggressively to curb inflation. The impact on the Indian Rupee's value against major currencies may weaken, leading to a potential increase in import costs for businesses. * India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) continues to rise above the target rate. * RBI raises interest rates by more than expected. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The status quo scenario sees India's inflation remaining within the government's target range, but at a moderate pace. The Reserve Bank of (52% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% The escalation chain begins with rising inflation expectations in India due to sustained economic growth. This triggers increased consumer demand and potentially leads to wage pressures, further fueling inflationary cycles. This could result in the Reserve Bank of India raising interest rates aggressively to curb inflation. The impact on the Indian Rupee's value against major currencies may weaken, leading to a potential increase in import costs for businesses. * India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) continues to rise above the target rate. * RBI raises interest rates by more than expected. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The status quo scenario sees India's inflation remaining within the government's target range, but at a moderate pace. The Reserve Bank of (19% model probability, not a guarantee)