S6/10Geopolitical
Thousands of Ukrainians protest against Zelenskyy’s firing of defence minister
Deputy air force commander resigns as president faces backlash over decision
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 35% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days