S6/10Geopolitical
Diplomat reveals number of Russian civilian casualties from past week’s attacks by Ukraine
38 Russian civilians, including one child, were killed, Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 44% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days