S8/10Geopolitical
Russia attacks Ukraine with two missiles and nearly 100 drones: air defence downs 72 UAVs
Russian forces have attacked Ukraine with two ballistic missiles and 94 drones of various types since the evening of 8 July. Ukrainian air defences have downed 72 drones, but hits by missiles and 19 UAVs have been recorded.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 67% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days