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S5/10Economic

The Iran Deal Is Hazy on Hormuz

Everything is clear except what will happen to shipping and oil exports.

Source: Foreign PolicyOriginal source

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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация

Iran's ambiguity on Hormuz Strait shipping routes leads to increased tensions with international powers. This escalates into direct military action by either Iran or a coalition of countries, potentially involving US forces in the region. The conflict could spread to other regional conflicts and disrupt global oil supplies for weeks. Confirmation indicators: Increased rhetoric from Iranian officials regarding maritime control and potential

Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Статус-кво

Iran's ambiguity on Hormuz Strait shipping routes leads to increased tensions with international powers. This escalates into direct military action by either Iran or a coalition of countries, potentially involving US forces in the region. The conflict could spread to other regional conflicts and disrupt global oil supplies for weeks. Confirmation indicators: Increased rhetoric from Iranian officials regarding maritime control and potential

Horizon: 7–30 days
C
Деэскалация

Iran's ambiguity on Hormuz Strait shipping routes leads to increased tensions with international powers. This escalates into direct military action by either Iran or a coalition of countries, potentially involving US forces in the region. The conflict could spread to other regional conflicts and disrupt global oil supplies for weeks. Confirmation indicators: Increased rhetoric from Iranian officials regarding maritime control and potential

Horizon: 7–30 days

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