S6/10Social
The cost of a broken ceasefire
Peace talks between Washington and Tehran falling apart may continue to hurt global economy
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 16% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days