S6/10Geopolitical
El-Obeid under siege by RSF: Could this be Sudan’s next el-Fasher?
UN warns of 'catastrophe' in el-Obeid after RSF atrocities in el-Fasher last year.
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 40% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days