S8/10Geopolitical

Sheikh Hasina’s return bid threatens to upend Bangladeshi politics

Ousted former prime minister Sheikh Hasina’s vow to return to Bangladesh despite facing a death sentence has raised the prospect of a dramatic comeback for her and the Awami League. Her potential return could revive the rivalry between the banned party and the ruling Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), while curbing further gains for Islamist political forces, according to analysts. Hasina, who has been living in India since her government was toppled by a student-led protest movement nearly two...

16 Jul 2026, 11:30 UTCSource: South China Morning PostOriginal source

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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация56% model probability

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Horizon: 7–30 days