Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Forecasts Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: China's blockade of Taiwan leads to heightened tensions with Japan. Japanese military exercises near disputed islands escalate into a direct confrontation with Chinese naval vessels. This triggers US intervention, potentially leading to increased international sanctions on China. * Confirmation Indicators: 1) Increased Chinese military activity in the Taiwan Strait and surrounding waters; 2) Public statements from both Japan and the US indicating readiness for potential conflict; 3) US Navy ships deploying near disputed islands and conducting joint exercises with Japan's Self-Defense Forces. * Time Horizon: 60 days to 120 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The international community, including the US and Japan, maintains a cautious stance on China's actions regarding Taiwan. Diplomatic eff (87% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Forecasts Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: China's blockade of Taiwan leads to heightened tensions with Japan. Japanese military exercises near disputed islands escalate into a direct confrontation with Chinese naval vessels. This triggers US intervention, potentially leading to increased international sanctions on China. * Confirmation Indicators: 1) Increased Chinese military activity in the Taiwan Strait and surrounding waters; 2) Public statements from both Japan and the US indicating readiness for potential conflict; 3) US Navy ships deploying near disputed islands and conducting joint exercises with Japan's Self-Defense Forces. * Time Horizon: 60 days to 120 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The international community, including the US and Japan, maintains a cautious stance on China's actions regarding Taiwan. Diplomatic eff (9% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Forecasts Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: China's blockade of Taiwan leads to heightened tensions with Japan. Japanese military exercises near disputed islands escalate into a direct confrontation with Chinese naval vessels. This triggers US intervention, potentially leading to increased international sanctions on China. * Confirmation Indicators: 1) Increased Chinese military activity in the Taiwan Strait and surrounding waters; 2) Public statements from both Japan and the US indicating readiness for potential conflict; 3) US Navy ships deploying near disputed islands and conducting joint exercises with Japan's Self-Defense Forces. * Time Horizon: 60 days to 120 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The international community, including the US and Japan, maintains a cautious stance on China's actions regarding Taiwan. Diplomatic eff (4% model probability, not a guarantee)

Japan Should Help Sink China's Invasion Fleet

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators