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S8/10Geopolitical
Russia could lose 30% of oil refining capacity for 18 months – IEA report
The IEA forecasts Russian oil refining at around 4 million barrels per day over the next 18 months, citing cumulative damage from Ukrainian strikes and sanctions.
Source: Ukrainska PravdaOriginal source
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days
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