Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Trump's statement on trade negotiations is interpreted as a veiled threat by China, leading to an escalation in rhetoric and accusations from both sides. This escalates into a public spat at the G20 summit, with increased tariffs imposed on each other's goods. * Confirmation indicators: 1) Chinese state media releases aggressive statements regarding US trade practices. 2) Trump tweets criticizing China's economic policies. * Time horizon: 1-3 months Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: Both sides continue to engage in diplomatic channels and trade negotiations, focusing on specific areas of cooperation like climate change and global health initiatives. This results in a temporary truce but with no significant breakthroughs in trade relations. * Confirmation indicators: 1) The US Treasury Secret (18% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Trump's statement on trade negotiations is interpreted as a veiled threat by China, leading to an escalation in rhetoric and accusations from both sides. This escalates into a public spat at the G20 summit, with increased tariffs imposed on each other's goods. * Confirmation indicators: 1) Chinese state media releases aggressive statements regarding US trade practices. 2) Trump tweets criticizing China's economic policies. * Time horizon: 1-3 months Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: Both sides continue to engage in diplomatic channels and trade negotiations, focusing on specific areas of cooperation like climate change and global health initiatives. This results in a temporary truce but with no significant breakthroughs in trade relations. * Confirmation indicators: 1) The US Treasury Secret (60% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Trump's statement on trade negotiations is interpreted as a veiled threat by China, leading to an escalation in rhetoric and accusations from both sides. This escalates into a public spat at the G20 summit, with increased tariffs imposed on each other's goods. * Confirmation indicators: 1) Chinese state media releases aggressive statements regarding US trade practices. 2) Trump tweets criticizing China's economic policies. * Time horizon: 1-3 months Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: Both sides continue to engage in diplomatic channels and trade negotiations, focusing on specific areas of cooperation like climate change and global health initiatives. This results in a temporary truce but with no significant breakthroughs in trade relations. * Confirmation indicators: 1) The US Treasury Secret (22% model probability, not a guarantee)