S8/10Geopolitical
How Ukraine’s drone strikes brought war home to 50mn Russians
Kyiv’s campaign against energy infrastructure leads to long queues for fuel, with Cossacks deployed to stop fights
Click a tag to subscribe via email/Telegram (manage channels in Account).
⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 69% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days