S5/10Economic
Amid a Slowing Economy, China Is Changing How It Judges Local Party Leaders
Longstanding metrics – particularly rapid GDP growth and infrastructural expansion – are no longer sufficient to sustain political legitimacy.
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 20% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days