S5/10Economic
Fighting breaks out in western Tigray as Ethiopia and TPLF trade blame
Clashes near Sheraro mark one of the most serious threats yet to the fragile 2022 Pretoria peace deal.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days
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