Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Following Putin's statement on productive talks with Kazakhstan, tensions could escalate in the following days. Kazakhstan's dependence on Russian energy and trade routes could lead to increased pressure on its economy. This could trigger a series of retaliatory measures by Russia, including further sanctions or military deployments near Kazakhstan's borders. * Increased rhetoric from both Putin and Kazakh officials regarding the importance of bilateral relations. * Reports of heightened military activity at Russian-Kazakh border regions. * Diplomatic tensions between Russia and other international players (e.g., EU, US) increase in response to escalating events. --- Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The current situation will likely remain relatively stable for the (19% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Following Putin's statement on productive talks with Kazakhstan, tensions could escalate in the following days. Kazakhstan's dependence on Russian energy and trade routes could lead to increased pressure on its economy. This could trigger a series of retaliatory measures by Russia, including further sanctions or military deployments near Kazakhstan's borders. * Increased rhetoric from both Putin and Kazakh officials regarding the importance of bilateral relations. * Reports of heightened military activity at Russian-Kazakh border regions. * Diplomatic tensions between Russia and other international players (e.g., EU, US) increase in response to escalating events. --- Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The current situation will likely remain relatively stable for the (59% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Following Putin's statement on productive talks with Kazakhstan, tensions could escalate in the following days. Kazakhstan's dependence on Russian energy and trade routes could lead to increased pressure on its economy. This could trigger a series of retaliatory measures by Russia, including further sanctions or military deployments near Kazakhstan's borders. * Increased rhetoric from both Putin and Kazakh officials regarding the importance of bilateral relations. * Reports of heightened military activity at Russian-Kazakh border regions. * Diplomatic tensions between Russia and other international players (e.g., EU, US) increase in response to escalating events. --- Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The current situation will likely remain relatively stable for the (22% model probability, not a guarantee)

Energy, trade, and tigers: key statements by Putin and Tokayev

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators