S6/10Geopolitical
India’s Wartime Buying Spree Leaves Behind a Cooking Gas Surplus
India’s frenzied efforts to counter disruptions in cooking gas supplies over the past months, while cargoes remained trapped in the Persian Gulf, has left state-run fuel retailers with the opposite problem — more than they can sell.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 42% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days