S9/10Geopolitical
Middle East live: Revolutionary Guards strike Kuwait and Bahrain after broken ceasefire
Explosions were heard in Bahrain and Kuwait's air defences intercepted "hostile missile and drone attacks" after US President Donald Trump deemed the US-Iran ceasefire "over." The blasts followed a vow from Iran's Revolutionary Guards that they would "give a devastating response" to fresh American strikes on the Islamic republic's territory. Follow our liveblog for the latest updates.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 40% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days