S6/10Geopolitical
‘Payback time’: Indonesia’s ‘dragons’ versus the president
Simmering discord between Prabowo Subianto and top businessmen threatens spillover on economy
⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 35% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days