S6/10Geopolitical
Ukraine supports Turkey's security initiatives in Black Sea — Fidan
The Turkish foreign minister emphasized that "the war impacts every sector," but Turkey advocates for a focused, separate approach to addressing security of navigation and energy supplies
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 44% model probability
Сценарии event-driven intelligence
Horizon: 7–30 days