S6/10Geopolitical
Ilsky oil refinery in Russia's Krasnodar Krai targeted by drones again – videos
Drones attacked the Ilsky oil refinery in Russia's Krasnodar Krai overnight. The extent of the damage is still being assessed.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Эскалация— 44% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days