S9/10Geopolitical
No breakthrough on Strait of Hormuz as Trump halts attack on Iran
Iran says Trump's comment on pullback from threatened strikes made 'within the context of psychological operations'.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days
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