S9/10Geopolitical
Missiles and negotiations: Iran 100 days into the war with US and Israel
Talks and attacks have continued for months, and could last much longer without a breakthrough.
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 79% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆1) Confirmation of Iranian missile tests targeting US or Israeli military assets (e.g., satellite imagery, intercepted communications). 2) Israel launching airstrikes on Iranian targets confirmed by multiple independent sources. 3) Public statements from the U.S. administration indicating increased troop deployment to
Horizon: 10–40 days
B
Status quo— 15% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆1) Confirmation of Iranian missile tests targeting US or Israeli military assets (e.g., satellite imagery, intercepted communications). 2) Israel launching airstrikes on Iranian targets confirmed by multiple independent sources. 3) Public statements from the U.S. administration indicating increased troop deployment to
Horizon: 10–40 days
C
De-escalation— 6% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆1) Confirmation of Iranian missile tests targeting US or Israeli military assets (e.g., satellite imagery, intercepted communications). 2) Israel launching airstrikes on Iranian targets confirmed by multiple independent sources. 3) Public statements from the U.S. administration indicating increased troop deployment to
Horizon: 10–40 days