S8/10Geopolitical
Tehran vows to 'crush' regional infrastructure if US hits Iranian sites
Iran said its response to any US strike on its infrastructure would result in destruction across the region, as multiple reports said Tehran had asked the Houthis to be ready to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, threatening a second global shipping chokepoint.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 62% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days