Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: A prolonged period of negative sentiment in global markets stemming from geopolitical tensions leads to increased volatility in the MOEX Index, potentially triggering a sell-off and further declines. * Confirmation Indicators: (1) Major economic sanctions imposed on Russia by leading international powers; (2) Continued escalation of military conflict in Eastern Europe. * Time Horizon: 7 to 14 days. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Baseline: The MOEX Index remains relatively stable, with slight fluctuations influenced by domestic economic indicators and global market trends. * Confirmation Indicators: (1) Positive news regarding the resolution of geopolitical tensions; (2) Continued growth in key sectors of the Russian economy such as energy and technology. * Time Horizon: 14 to 30 days. * (26% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: A prolonged period of negative sentiment in global markets stemming from geopolitical tensions leads to increased volatility in the MOEX Index, potentially triggering a sell-off and further declines. * Confirmation Indicators: (1) Major economic sanctions imposed on Russia by leading international powers; (2) Continued escalation of military conflict in Eastern Europe. * Time Horizon: 7 to 14 days. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Baseline: The MOEX Index remains relatively stable, with slight fluctuations influenced by domestic economic indicators and global market trends. * Confirmation Indicators: (1) Positive news regarding the resolution of geopolitical tensions; (2) Continued growth in key sectors of the Russian economy such as energy and technology. * Time Horizon: 14 to 30 days. * (54% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: A prolonged period of negative sentiment in global markets stemming from geopolitical tensions leads to increased volatility in the MOEX Index, potentially triggering a sell-off and further declines. * Confirmation Indicators: (1) Major economic sanctions imposed on Russia by leading international powers; (2) Continued escalation of military conflict in Eastern Europe. * Time Horizon: 7 to 14 days. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Baseline: The MOEX Index remains relatively stable, with slight fluctuations influenced by domestic economic indicators and global market trends. * Confirmation Indicators: (1) Positive news regarding the resolution of geopolitical tensions; (2) Continued growth in key sectors of the Russian economy such as energy and technology. * Time Horizon: 14 to 30 days. * (20% model probability, not a guarantee)