Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Increased migration pressure leads to political instability and potential escalation of conflict within Ukraine. This could trigger sanctions from international bodies, further straining the economy. * Confirmation Indicators: Increase in military tensions with Russia, a significant rise in migrant-related protests, or a formal declaration of war by either side. * Time Horizon: 60 days to 2 months Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: Ukraine continues to experience labor shortages and implements policies that attract migrants. This could lead to a gradual increase in the migrant population, but without significant political or social upheaval. * Confirmation Indicators: Implementation of new immigration programs with clear targets for attracting specific skill sets, a noticeable increase in (29% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Increased migration pressure leads to political instability and potential escalation of conflict within Ukraine. This could trigger sanctions from international bodies, further straining the economy. * Confirmation Indicators: Increase in military tensions with Russia, a significant rise in migrant-related protests, or a formal declaration of war by either side. * Time Horizon: 60 days to 2 months Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: Ukraine continues to experience labor shortages and implements policies that attract migrants. This could lead to a gradual increase in the migrant population, but without significant political or social upheaval. * Confirmation Indicators: Implementation of new immigration programs with clear targets for attracting specific skill sets, a noticeable increase in (52% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Increased migration pressure leads to political instability and potential escalation of conflict within Ukraine. This could trigger sanctions from international bodies, further straining the economy. * Confirmation Indicators: Increase in military tensions with Russia, a significant rise in migrant-related protests, or a formal declaration of war by either side. * Time Horizon: 60 days to 2 months Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: Ukraine continues to experience labor shortages and implements policies that attract migrants. This could lead to a gradual increase in the migrant population, but without significant political or social upheaval. * Confirmation Indicators: Implementation of new immigration programs with clear targets for attracting specific skill sets, a noticeable increase in (19% model probability, not a guarantee)

Ukraine forecast to have more migrants than natives soon

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators