Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Tannuzzo's comments on the Fed's rate path lead to increased market volatility, with investors anticipating two consecutive 0.25 percentage point hikes in 2026 and 2027. This triggers a sell-off in long-duration bonds as investors seek safety in shorter-term investments. * Confirmation indicators: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes release confirming the Fed's hawkish stance, followed by a sharp increase in Treasury yields over the following week. * Time horizon: 30 days to 6 months Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: Market reaction remains muted as investors anticipate continued uncertainty about the Fed's future actions. The market continues to grapple with conflicting signals regarding inflation and economic growth, leading to a period of cautious trading and limited price mov (26% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Tannuzzo's comments on the Fed's rate path lead to increased market volatility, with investors anticipating two consecutive 0.25 percentage point hikes in 2026 and 2027. This triggers a sell-off in long-duration bonds as investors seek safety in shorter-term investments. * Confirmation indicators: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes release confirming the Fed's hawkish stance, followed by a sharp increase in Treasury yields over the following week. * Time horizon: 30 days to 6 months Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: Market reaction remains muted as investors anticipate continued uncertainty about the Fed's future actions. The market continues to grapple with conflicting signals regarding inflation and economic growth, leading to a period of cautious trading and limited price mov (54% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Tannuzzo's comments on the Fed's rate path lead to increased market volatility, with investors anticipating two consecutive 0.25 percentage point hikes in 2026 and 2027. This triggers a sell-off in long-duration bonds as investors seek safety in shorter-term investments. * Confirmation indicators: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes release confirming the Fed's hawkish stance, followed by a sharp increase in Treasury yields over the following week. * Time horizon: 30 days to 6 months Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: Market reaction remains muted as investors anticipate continued uncertainty about the Fed's future actions. The market continues to grapple with conflicting signals regarding inflation and economic growth, leading to a period of cautious trading and limited price mov (20% model probability, not a guarantee)