S6/10Geopolitical
Mahrang Baloch’s Conviction is a Pyrrhic Victory for the Pakistani State
They may have locked up a popular and powerful activist. But this will only convince more Baloch that there is no space for political protest or dissent.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 35% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days