S6/10Geopolitical
Lithuania see no direct threat from Russia — presidential adviser
In recent years, the EU countries have been regularly blaming Russia for being behind various emergencies and what they call "malicious activities" in their territories
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days
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