S6/10Geopolitical
Ukraine hits Russia's Ufa oil refinery for second time in a week, Zelenskyy says
Ukraine’s domestically developed and manufactured drones and missiles have been hammering Russian oil facilities, including refineries, terminals, storage depots and pipeline pumping stations, for months.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days
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