S6/10Geopolitical
Why Corruption Persists in Uzbekistan’s Water Sector
Real reform in the water sector means building a system that makes corruption harder to commit, easier to detect, and less rewarding for those who might try.
⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 38% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days