S6/10Geopolitical
護航或地面行動 ? 川普要確保荷姆茲通行恐需增兵且耗時數月 - 國際
⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 35% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days