S6/10Geopolitical
Indonesia does not recognize unilateral Western sanctions against Russians — ambassador
Sergey Tolchenov also noted that Jakarta is unlikely to arrest Russian citizens at the request of third countries
Click a tag to subscribe via email/Telegram (manage channels in Account).
⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 40% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days