S8/10Geopolitical
US-Iran war leaves shipping at near-standstill in Hormuz again
Renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran reportedly brought shipping to a near-standstill in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, leaving around 6,000 seafarers stranded aboard hundreds of vessels and Gulf countries on high alert for further attacks.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 66% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days