Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: China announces increased military activity near Taiwan, including naval exercises and air patrols. US Congress delays approval for new arms sales to Taiwan, citing concerns about escalation. China further pressures US to formally recognize its claim over Taiwan. * Confirmation indicators: Chinese military activities near Taiwan escalate in frequency and intensity, accompanied by a public statement from the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs explicitly demanding US recognition of their claims. * Time horizon: Within 30 days, escalating tensions lead to increased risk of direct conflict between China and Taiwan. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The US continues to provide arms sales to Taiwan at a reduced pace while maintaining diplomatic pressure on China to de-escalate. Both sides continue to (21% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: China announces increased military activity near Taiwan, including naval exercises and air patrols. US Congress delays approval for new arms sales to Taiwan, citing concerns about escalation. China further pressures US to formally recognize its claim over Taiwan. * Confirmation indicators: Chinese military activities near Taiwan escalate in frequency and intensity, accompanied by a public statement from the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs explicitly demanding US recognition of their claims. * Time horizon: Within 30 days, escalating tensions lead to increased risk of direct conflict between China and Taiwan. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The US continues to provide arms sales to Taiwan at a reduced pace while maintaining diplomatic pressure on China to de-escalate. Both sides continue to (58% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: China announces increased military activity near Taiwan, including naval exercises and air patrols. US Congress delays approval for new arms sales to Taiwan, citing concerns about escalation. China further pressures US to formally recognize its claim over Taiwan. * Confirmation indicators: Chinese military activities near Taiwan escalate in frequency and intensity, accompanied by a public statement from the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs explicitly demanding US recognition of their claims. * Time horizon: Within 30 days, escalating tensions lead to increased risk of direct conflict between China and Taiwan. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The US continues to provide arms sales to Taiwan at a reduced pace while maintaining diplomatic pressure on China to de-escalate. Both sides continue to (21% model probability, not a guarantee)