S6/10Military
Israel troops to stay in south Lebanon until Hezbollah fully disarms — defense minister
In Israel Katz's words, Israel "did not ask permission from any party to enter Lebanon, and we do not need permission to remain in Lebanon"
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 49% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days