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Why Iran is risking so much over the Strait of Hormuz
None of the choices facing Iran’s leaders offer a clear path to victory, as the conflict with the US continues.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days
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