S6/10Geopolitical
伊朗革命卫队 ： 向美军基地发动导弹和无人机袭击
⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 35% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days