Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: France's "advanced deterrence" doctrine leads to increased military activity near Russia's borders. This triggers heightened tensions and a potential arms race, with both sides increasing their nuclear stockpiles. Russia could respond by deploying its own advanced weaponry or conducting military exercises in the Black Sea region. * Confirmation indicators: France deploys new nuclear-capable missiles to NATO member states, followed by Russian military exercises near the French border within a week. * Time horizon: 10 days to 2 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: Macron's statements regarding "advanced deterrence" are met with cautious responses from Russia and other global powers. France maintains its nuclear ambitions but refrains from deploying new weapons or engaging in provocative acti (69% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: France's "advanced deterrence" doctrine leads to increased military activity near Russia's borders. This triggers heightened tensions and a potential arms race, with both sides increasing their nuclear stockpiles. Russia could respond by deploying its own advanced weaponry or conducting military exercises in the Black Sea region. * Confirmation indicators: France deploys new nuclear-capable missiles to NATO member states, followed by Russian military exercises near the French border within a week. * Time horizon: 10 days to 2 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: Macron's statements regarding "advanced deterrence" are met with cautious responses from Russia and other global powers. France maintains its nuclear ambitions but refrains from deploying new weapons or engaging in provocative acti (22% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: France's "advanced deterrence" doctrine leads to increased military activity near Russia's borders. This triggers heightened tensions and a potential arms race, with both sides increasing their nuclear stockpiles. Russia could respond by deploying its own advanced weaponry or conducting military exercises in the Black Sea region. * Confirmation indicators: France deploys new nuclear-capable missiles to NATO member states, followed by Russian military exercises near the French border within a week. * Time horizon: 10 days to 2 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: Macron's statements regarding "advanced deterrence" are met with cautious responses from Russia and other global powers. France maintains its nuclear ambitions but refrains from deploying new weapons or engaging in provocative acti (8% model probability, not a guarantee)