Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% On June 8th, 2025, in response to the Israeli strike on Syria's south, Hezbollah launches a ballistic missile from Lebanon towards Tel Aviv. Within 48 hours, Israel responds with airstrikes targeting Hezbollah's rocket launch sites in Lebanon and Syria. The conflict escalates into a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah, drawing in Iran and its proxies. 1. Hezbollah announces plans to retaliate against Israel. 2. Iranian military units mobilize along the Syrian-Israeli border. 3. A ceasefire is rejected by both parties. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The Israeli strike on Syria's south triggers a routine response from Iran, with Tehran condemning the attack and vowing to protect its allies in Damascus. However, Hezbollah chooses not to retaliate, opting instead for diploma (86% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% On June 8th, 2025, in response to the Israeli strike on Syria's south, Hezbollah launches a ballistic missile from Lebanon towards Tel Aviv. Within 48 hours, Israel responds with airstrikes targeting Hezbollah's rocket launch sites in Lebanon and Syria. The conflict escalates into a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah, drawing in Iran and its proxies. 1. Hezbollah announces plans to retaliate against Israel. 2. Iranian military units mobilize along the Syrian-Israeli border. 3. A ceasefire is rejected by both parties. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The Israeli strike on Syria's south triggers a routine response from Iran, with Tehran condemning the attack and vowing to protect its allies in Damascus. However, Hezbollah chooses not to retaliate, opting instead for diploma (10% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% On June 8th, 2025, in response to the Israeli strike on Syria's south, Hezbollah launches a ballistic missile from Lebanon towards Tel Aviv. Within 48 hours, Israel responds with airstrikes targeting Hezbollah's rocket launch sites in Lebanon and Syria. The conflict escalates into a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah, drawing in Iran and its proxies. 1. Hezbollah announces plans to retaliate against Israel. 2. Iranian military units mobilize along the Syrian-Israeli border. 3. A ceasefire is rejected by both parties. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The Israeli strike on Syria's south triggers a routine response from Iran, with Tehran condemning the attack and vowing to protect its allies in Damascus. However, Hezbollah chooses not to retaliate, opting instead for diploma (4% model probability, not a guarantee)

Israeli warplanes deliver strike on Syria’s south — IDF

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators