S5/10Economic
Charting the Future of the Indonesian Military’s Involvement in Counterterrorism
While TNI’s past counterterrorism involvement has proved beneficial, it is important not to overlook how a further expansion of its role could complicate existing efforts.
⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 29% model probability
Scenarios Analysis: Indonesian Military's Counterterrorism Involvement
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Increased public statements by the TNI regarding their role in count
Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Статус-кво— 52% model probability
Horizon: 7–30 days
C
Деэскалация— 19% model probability
Horizon: 7–30 days