S6/10Social
France's Macron in first post-Assad visit to Damascus : why the Syria stopover ?
As Iran buries its Supreme Guide who was killed last February, and Hamas started to disarm in Gaza, Emmanuel Macron is going to Damascus, for the first visit of a French President since Nicolas Sarkozy met the deposed President Bachar Al-Assad in 2009. The timing of this visit raises questions, as well as the objectives of the French President when meeting his Syrian counterpart Ahmed Al-Shareh.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 36% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days