S5/10Economic
Trump offers Iran an economic lifeline — with strings
Iran has seen a speedy rebound in oil exports after the US-Iran deal granted immediate waivers on US sanctions. Relief on frozen assets and a $300 billion reconstruction fund now hinge on Tehran meeting key conditions.
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 30% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days