S9/10Geopolitical
US, Iran exchange new strikes
The risk of a wider war in the Middle East is growing after authorities in Bahrain and Kuwait said they intercepted missiles and drones launched from Iran. Air raid sirens also sounded in Jordan's capital, Amman, while Israel said it detected Iranian missiles targeting the coastal city of Aqaba. The escalation comes after the US Embassy in Jordan urged American citizens, in a social media post, to avoid Aqaba's airport and seaport because of a specific and credible threat.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Эскалация
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Horizon: 7–30 days
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