S6/10Geopolitical
Dozens found guilty in Genoa's deadly bridge collapse
An Italian court has found 32 defendants guilty over the deadly Genoa bridge collapse in 2018. Forty-three people died when their vehicles plunged from the flyover in the port city. On the morning of August 14, 2018, during a summer storm, a 200-metre section of the bridge collapsed, sending dozens of vehicles plunging on to warehouses and a riverbed beneath.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Эскалация— 38% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days