S8/10Geopolitical
How serious is Iran’s threat to disrupt shipping in the Red Sea?
After the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's IRGC warns it could next target Bab al-Mandeb.
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 62% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days